Edge
IntermediateWhat actually counts as an edge
An edge is not a hunch or a good week, it is a measurable tilt in the odds that survives across a large sample. It comes from two dials only: how often you win, and how much you make when you win versus lose. A strategy can win less than half its trades and still have an edge if the winners are big enough, and it can win most of its trades and still lose money if the losers are worse.
Proving you have one
The only honest test of an edge is expectancy over enough trades to trust it, which is why a handful of results proves nothing either way. Edges are also perishable: markets change, and an advantage that worked for a year can quietly stop working. Tracking your expectancy over time is how you tell a real edge from a lucky streak, and how you catch a good one fading.
Know the term. Now hold the line.
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